Politics: United States Democratic Primary

[butterfly]

So, the total number number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2,025, yes? That's the lowest number for a majority. Obama is currently leading Clinton by 143 delegates, with his total number at 1,631 and hers at 1,488. That's... not insurmountable by any means. Certainly not a good reason for her to curl up and go home.

Pennsylvia's primary is on the twenty-second of this month. Then Indiana and North Carolina on the 6th. West Virginia on the 13th and, finally, the 20th of May, Oregon gets to vote (along with Kentucky). The fact that my primary is so far away is a source of frustration to me.

I like Clinton's health care plan. When she and Obama talk specifics about issues and votes, I tend to find myself agreeing with her more often than with him when they differ (many times, they don't). Of course, in any race between Obama and McCain, Obama would get my vote in a heartbeat, but between him and Clinton... yes, I plan to vote for her.

The world that we live in is not post-racism or post-sexism (or, for that matter, post-classism and it certainly isn't post-homophobia). Either Clinton or Obama as our President will be a major step forward for this country. I'll be proud to call either of them my President.

Comments

[coalescent.livejournal.com]

That's... not insurmountable by any means.

My understanding is that it is virtually impossible thanks to the way delegates are allocated -- ie proportionally. There's a calculator (http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/) here, and to get Hillary a lead in the delegate count you have to have her win with 90% of the vote in every contest left.

[butterfly.livejournal.com]

Well, as long as she's still in the race, I'll still vote for her. Since voting for her won't cause any bizarre side effects like some random third party winning, there's no reason not to vote with my conscience and my head, even if she's probably going to lose.

Though I played around with that calculator and put her in the lead with only 60 and 70 percent vote wins per state/location (and that, I notice, counts none of the superdelegates and though we don't know for certain how they will vote, I don't think that all of them will vote for Obama).

And if you pull the red one at the top, she hits the lead if she averages 65% per delegate district that's left. Which again, could be hard but not impossible. Particularly not if she pulls a big enough majority in the two biggest states left.

[coalescent.livejournal.com]

Hmm, you're right -- they must have changed their algorithm since the last time I played with it. That said, if she does average 65% in every remaining contest it'll be a huge upset. That said, of course you should vote with your conscience!

[butterfly.livejournal.com]

Too true! But like I said, I don't mind Obama being President at all, so I feel much less... pressure (not sure if that's the best word) than many people who feel so strongly for their choice that they'll be miserable with the other (my aunt and uncle are very vocal Obama fans).

[fanaddict.livejournal.com]

Since voting for her won't cause any bizarre side effects like some random third party winning, there's no reason not to vote with my conscience and my head, even if she's probably going to lose.

I voted for her already, but at this point... I don't know if she should stay in. The reason I say that corresponds to your above statement - will her staying in lead to a 3rd party candidate winning? No. However the continued in-fighting in the Dem party is certainly losing whichever one becomes the nominee votes that will go to McCain most likely (the Dems are slipping with Independents who are now starting to trend toward McCain when previously it had been Obama). I'm pretty opposed to another Rep presidency and so while I prefer Clinton, it's not by enough to make me think her staying in and causing more lost Dem votes in the fall is the best option.

Essentially/mathamatically, for Clinton to win the nomination, Obama has to screw up big time. The problem is, with Clinton nailing him on smaller issues, these issues get called to the public's attention to his detriment. And by still having an ongoing race, Obama is forced to campaign more aggressively and therefore have more potential problems with "misspeaking". I think at this point, let PA vote but after that if she hasn't gotten >65% of the vote there, she should consider the needs of the party over her individual desire to be Pres.

[butterfly.livejournal.com]

I think whatever he may go through in the primaries, the Republicans will be exponentially harder on him than Clinton ever could, so if he can't handle the pressure, I'd rather know now.

[fanaddict.livejournal.com]

Of course the Rep will be as hard as Clinton. My point is that by continuing in the race at this point, Clinton is forcing Obama to be more reactive to her and this creates more opportunities for him to mess up in some way - which is her only hope right now. The problem is, it's mostly small missteps that don't help her enough but cumulatively lower the voters' regard for Obama enough to help McCain.

Now you are going to say - he would mess up with McCain too as the nominee. And of course that's true - but McCain would have to be reactive right back to Obama's criticisms of his plans, etc and that gives McCain more chance to misstep as well. They would be on an even playing ground. Right now McCain is coasting because Clinton is doing what he would otherwise have to do - mess up Obama. So this whole thing is helping McCain by keeping him clean while dragging Obama through the mud when, if Clinton dropped out, they would both be muddied. At this point despite my preference for her, I can't see how her staying in the race beyond PA is anything other than detrimental. To each her own though.

[butterfly.livejournal.com]

Indeed. I would simply like the chance to vote for the person that I would most like to see in the Oval Office.